# Scenario Planning Worksheet

## Overview
Scenario Planning is a strategic planning method that organizations use to create flexible long-term plans. It involves developing multiple plausible future scenarios to help make decisions that will be sound across all possible futures.

## Pre-Planning Setup

**Organization:** _________________________________
**Planning Horizon:** _____ years
**Date:** _____________
**Planning Team:** _________________________________
**Strategic Question:** _________________________________

## Step 1: Identify Driving Forces

### STEEP Analysis
*Identify key factors that could shape the future*

**Social Forces:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________
4. _________________________________________________________________

**Technological Forces:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________
4. _________________________________________________________________

**Economic Forces:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________
4. _________________________________________________________________

**Environmental Forces:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________
4. _________________________________________________________________

**Political/Regulatory Forces:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________
4. _________________________________________________________________

## Step 2: Determine Critical Uncertainties

### Uncertainty Assessment
*Rate each driving force on Impact and Uncertainty*

| Driving Force | Impact on Business (1-10) | Uncertainty Level (1-10) | Critical? (I×U > 50) |
|--------------|-------------------------|------------------------|-------------------|
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |
| | | | Y/N |

### Top Two Critical Uncertainties
**Critical Uncertainty 1:** _________________________________
- Range: From _________________ to _________________
- Key indicators: __________________________________________________

**Critical Uncertainty 2:** _________________________________
- Range: From _________________ to _________________
- Key indicators: __________________________________________________

## Step 3: Develop Scenario Matrix

### 2x2 Scenario Framework
*Plot your critical uncertainties to create four scenarios*

```
Critical Uncertainty 2 (High)
            |
            |
Scenario A  |  Scenario B
            |
------------|-------------
            |
Scenario C  |  Scenario D
            |
            |
Critical Uncertainty 2 (Low)
            
        Critical          Critical
        Uncertainty 1     Uncertainty 1
        (Low)            (High)
```

## Step 4: Flesh Out Scenarios

### Scenario A: _________________________________ 
*[Critical Uncertainty 1: Low, Critical Uncertainty 2: High]*

**Scenario Description:**
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________

**Key Characteristics:**
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________

**Early Warning Signals:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Probability Assessment:** _____%

### Scenario B: _________________________________
*[Critical Uncertainty 1: High, Critical Uncertainty 2: High]*

**Scenario Description:**
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________

**Key Characteristics:**
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________

**Early Warning Signals:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Probability Assessment:** _____%

### Scenario C: _________________________________
*[Critical Uncertainty 1: Low, Critical Uncertainty 2: Low]*

**Scenario Description:**
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________

**Key Characteristics:**
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________

**Early Warning Signals:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Probability Assessment:** _____%

### Scenario D: _________________________________
*[Critical Uncertainty 1: High, Critical Uncertainty 2: Low]*

**Scenario Description:**
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________

**Key Characteristics:**
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________

**Early Warning Signals:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Probability Assessment:** _____%

## Step 5: Assess Implications

### Business Impact Analysis

#### Scenario A Implications
**Opportunities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Threats:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Required Capabilities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

#### Scenario B Implications
**Opportunities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Threats:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Required Capabilities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

#### Scenario C Implications
**Opportunities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Threats:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Required Capabilities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

#### Scenario D Implications
**Opportunities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Threats:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

**Required Capabilities:**
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________

## Step 6: Identify Strategic Options

### Robust Strategies
*Strategies that work well across all scenarios*

1. Strategy: _________________ Works in Scenarios: ☐A ☐B ☐C ☐D
   Description: ______________________________________________________
   Investment: $_____________

2. Strategy: _________________ Works in Scenarios: ☐A ☐B ☐C ☐D
   Description: ______________________________________________________
   Investment: $_____________

3. Strategy: _________________ Works in Scenarios: ☐A ☐B ☐C ☐D
   Description: ______________________________________________________
   Investment: $_____________

### Contingent Strategies
*Strategies specific to certain scenarios*

| Strategy | Trigger Scenario | Description | Preparation Required |
|----------|-----------------|-------------|-------------------|
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |

### Hedge Strategies
*Strategies that protect against worst-case scenarios*

1. Hedge: _________________ Protects Against: _______________________
2. Hedge: _________________ Protects Against: _______________________
3. Hedge: _________________ Protects Against: _______________________

## Step 7: Create Monitoring System

### Key Indicators Dashboard

| Indicator | Current Value | Scenario A Signal | Scenario B Signal | Scenario C Signal | Scenario D Signal |
|-----------|--------------|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |

### Monitoring Frequency
- Daily monitoring: ___________________________________________________
- Weekly monitoring: __________________________________________________
- Monthly monitoring: _________________________________________________
- Quarterly monitoring: _______________________________________________

## Step 8: Develop Action Plans

### Immediate Actions (All Scenarios)
*What must we do now regardless of which future unfolds?*

- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________
- [ ] _________________________________________________________________

### Scenario-Specific Trigger Points

**If Scenario A indicators appear:**
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________

**If Scenario B indicators appear:**
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________

**If Scenario C indicators appear:**
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________

**If Scenario D indicators appear:**
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________
- [ ] Action: _________________ By: _________ Owner: _________________

## Wind Tunneling Current Strategy

### Strategy Stress Test
*How does our current strategy perform in each scenario?*

| Current Strategy Element | Scenario A Performance | Scenario B Performance | Scenario C Performance | Scenario D Performance |
|-------------------------|----------------------|----------------------|----------------------|----------------------|
| | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails |
| | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails |
| | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails | ☐Strong ☐Weak ☐Fails |

### Strategy Adjustments Needed
1. _________________________________________________________________
2. _________________________________________________________________
3. _________________________________________________________________
4. _________________________________________________________________

## Resource Allocation

### Investment Priorities by Scenario
| Investment Area | Scenario A Priority | Scenario B Priority | Scenario C Priority | Scenario D Priority | Weighted Priority |
|----------------|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|------------------|
| | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | |
| | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | |
| | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | |
| | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | |

### Flexible Resource Planning
- Core investments (all scenarios): $_______________ (___%)
- Contingent investments: $_______________ (___%)
- Reserve fund: $_______________ (___%)

## Communication Plan

### Stakeholder Messaging
| Stakeholder Group | Key Messages | Scenario-Specific Talking Points | Communication Channel |
|------------------|--------------|--------------------------------|---------------------|
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |

## Review & Update Process

### Scenario Review Schedule
- [ ] Monthly indicator review: First _____ of month
- [ ] Quarterly scenario assessment: _____________
- [ ] Annual scenario refresh: _____________

### Update Triggers
- [ ] Major unexpected event
- [ ] Indicator outside predicted range
- [ ] New technology emergence
- [ ] Regulatory change
- [ ] Competitive disruption

## Example Scenario Planning

**Organization:** Automotive Manufacturer
**Time Horizon:** 10 years
**Strategic Question:** How should we position ourselves in the future mobility market?

**Critical Uncertainties:**
1. Pace of autonomous vehicle adoption (Slow → Rapid)
2. Ownership model preference (Private ownership → Shared mobility)

**Scenarios:**
- A: "Slow & Owned" - Gradual AV adoption, people still prefer owning cars
- B: "Fast & Owned" - Rapid AV adoption, but private ownership remains
- C: "Slow & Shared" - Traditional cars, but shift to sharing economy
- D: "Fast & Shared" - Autonomous vehicles dominate in shared fleets

**Robust Strategy:** Develop modular vehicle platforms that can support both autonomous and traditional driving, suitable for both private and fleet use.

**Early Warning Signals:** 
- Regulatory approvals for Level 4 autonomy
- Urban car ownership rates
- Ride-sharing market growth
- Consumer sentiment surveys

---
*Completed by:* _____________
*Date:* _____________
*Next Review:* _____________